So this is what I learned...

Order of operations for bolt:

Spellcasting (TN 4) - power activates and uses PP.
Compare Spellcasting result to ranged TN of target, ignoring ranged penalties. Cover, Dodge, Arcane Resistance, whatever all applies. Base TN=4.
If it hits, roll damage as normal.
If the initial activation roll got a raise and it hits, roll the extra d6 raise damage.
In the instance where it is being used in melee, then swap step 4 for Parry instead of Ranged TN.